With 2017 behind us and 2018 here, I have been reflecting (always good) and planning (often slightly dangerous).

This last year was tumultuous in many ways for the ag industry.  Administrative changes at the federal level cascaded to changes at the state and local level, creating uncertainty about how ag programs and agriculture in general will be impacted.  Many other significant things happened and a few that immediately come to mind include:

Dicamba. This herbicide product used to control broadleaf weeds (not grasses) in several agricultural crops caused a lot of chaos across the US.  According to the EPA, dicamba damage was reported on more than 3.6 million acres of soybean crops (which is about 4% of all soybeans planted in the US).  There were reports of damage in Kentucky in non-tolerant plants as well as reports in about two dozen other states.  One solution I heard suggested was that if everyone used the resistant varieties, damage would not be a concern.  To me, this isn’t a solution – I support farmers’ free choice to match varieties and hybrids to their conditions, so forcing all growers to adopt a single technology or production strategy is not a good thing.  The chemical is now a restricted use pesticide, requiring more training for applicators, which is a good thing as well as the other recommendations that have been outlined as best practices when applying the product.

More Mergers. Nearly a dozen high-profile agribusinesses completed or initiated mergers last year.  It is difficult to imagine this won’t impact farmers, but how significantly remains to be seen.  Mergers and acquisitions can enhance efficiencies but can also lead to fewer product choices.  These mergers may be balanced by an increased presence of smaller regional companies.  Several mergers I am curious about:

1. Dow and Dupont: DuPont Pioneer, DuPont Crop Protection, and Dow AgroSciences are now a single ag company, DowDuPont.
2. Bayer and Monsanto: Monsanto brings the seeds and traits and Bayer brings crop protection. In prep, Bayer sold the LibertyLink technology and other seed and nonselective herbicide businesses to BASF.
3. ChemChina and Syngenta:  Syngenta has the seeds and traits and ChemChina has the agricultural chemicals, including generic formulations. An interesting point is that ChemChina is owned by the Chinese government.
4. AGCO and Precision Planting: The agricultural equipment company AGCO agreed to buy Precision Planting from The Climate Corporation, a subsidiary of Monsanto known for the Climate FieldView digital platform.
5. John Deere and Blue River Technology: John Deere acquired Blue River Technology, a computer vision and machine learning company to enable farm-management decisions at the plant level.
6. Agrium and The Potash Corporation: These two fertilizer companies are merging into Nutrien to become a top producer of potash and nitrogen fertilizer.

Farm Labor.  A pervasive concern of many farmers I visited with this last season is access to a reliable labor force.  The Western Growers trade association estimates that currently there is a farm labor shortage of up to 20%.  This is a particular problem in producing labor-intensive crops like vegetables and fruits.  From a financial standpoint, labor is expensive (about 17%) of total variable farm costs.  In labor-intensive crops (fruit, vegetables, and nursery products), labor can be as much as 40% of total variable farm costs.  I don’t believe there is an easy solution.  According to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), the H-2A seasonal guest worker program currently supplies only about 3% of the US ag workforce, which is <1% of all workers.  Technology can aid with farm work, but is often cost-prohibitive and some tasks (i.e. picking only ripe tree fruits or vegetables) cannot be automated.  Retail food prices are expected to rise between 1-2% in 2018, which may be exacerbated by labor shortages, severe weather events, or other unforeseen conditions.

2018 Plans for Whippoorwill Farm:  As I think about things I want to accomplish this year for my operation, it didn’t take me long to come up with a list of 8 items in addition to the goals of reducing food waste and growing more of the food our household consumes. I’ve read that articulating goals and having accountability partners (I’m looking at you) are excellent strategies for keeping on track.  Maybe I should list a round dozen to milestone one a month to make significant progress.  My (initial) list of 2018 Projects include:

• Review Business Plan
• Select, Purchase, and Plant Grape Varieties
• Build and Populate Chicken Coop
• Renovate Strawberry Planting
• Plan Orchard
• Clear Walking Path
• Select, Purchase and Plant Brambles
• Build and Paint Woodshed

So, what will happen in 2018?  Will ag input prices increase or will farmers and consumers ultimately benefit as firms compete for business?  Will new technologies to help growers reduce input usage, improve yields, and ultimately increase profits become easily available?  Will my productivity (and profitability) increase with the investments I’m making?  These are all things I’ll be thinking about in the coming months.